Cryptology Annual News Update and Vignette

Bill Ricker

for BLU.org

Sept 17, 2025

  1. Cryptology News Bulletins
  2. Post Quantum Cryptograpy update
  3. Historic Vignette
  4. Bibliography

1 Cryptology News Bulletins 2024-09 to 2025-09

“Abundance of Caution” is C-suite lingo for “Oopsie, oh flying squirrel”


Let’s Encrypt: short-lived certificates &c

In other news


NOTES on Let’s Encrypt 2025

Revocation of certs is a solution that creates more problems (centralized, DoS, …). The alternative is to discard certificates frequently. (This is more plausible for server certs than for email certs, where one would like to be able to decrypt a message when it’s relevant, not have to decrypt immediately upon receipt.) This also limits the window of vulnerability of TLS server cert and private key saved in publicly readable cloud backups / staging areas / GitHub repos / container repo; the private key expires 6 days after received; save a(n almost) stale key to the repo, discloses nothing, and autoupdates?



UK NCSC advice on ‘Advanced Cryptography’

UK white paper Schneier & friends comments

Advanced := Beyond protecteding data at rest and data in motion; allowing some processing of protected data.

Their examples:

key takeaways are

Notes on Advanced Cryptography

Their gloss of their examples:



NIST revised password rules

NIST SP 800-63 Digital Identity Guidelines includes passwords. This is officially only applicable to Federal information systems, but constitutes a best practice for the rest of us to be aware of.

Schneier on 2024 draft’s password rules


Attacks only get better: GPU assisted Brute Force

Nvidia-RTX-4090 ‘GPU Assisted Brute Force Cryptanalysis of GPRS, GSM, RFID, and TETRA: Brute Force Cryptanalysis of KASUMI, SPECK, and TEA3.’

These are actual wireless communications protocols’ keys.

This research shows that some key-sizes are within brute-force now with state-actor scale (e.g. Top500) clusters of GPUs or hypothetical specialized hardware, and others may be in range by 2050.

Schneier &c


NOTES

Venona-level persistence-play is already in play1. Today’s cellphone intercepts may be cracked in the future. For the highest priority, investigators may be willing to dedicate a cluster for a year to get the session-key for a previously recorded conversation. And it will only get more affordable.



What to use instead of PGP, FB IM, …

Updating our prior discussions (in 20192, 20213, and 20224):

Nov. 2024: What To Use Instead of PGP

Nice discussion by use-case by a cryptologist who finds vulns. By Use Case is important, as the flaws in PGP/GPG usage largely come from trying to be the one Swiss Army Knife to pound all nails.


NOTES

Covers use-cases:


Apr.2025: Neiman Lab: How to leak to a journalist

tl;dr:Classic Alice+Bob cryptographic diagram with added “A The Atlantic” in lower-middle, tapping connection, where “Eve the evesdropper” is usually located. That’s the whole joke.

But even with Signal secure group messages, OpSec requires you not add the wrong person from your Contacts!


NOTES

Key notes from Schneier &friends comments

Also, reminder that Telegram doesn’t default to secure, and even when security is enabled, it’s only for 1-to-1 not group chats. Telegram is find

And as always YMMV, evaluate your threat-model.



2 What’s up with Post Quantum Cryptography?

Review: What’s Quantum Computing?

♳ Reprises (♳) and updates last major PQC status update Sept 2022 which is excerpted below with recycled “♳ Review” markings.

Quantum Superposition when used for computing.


Such bits are in quantum superposition of True and False, which is a bug in classical computing but a feature in QC.

This allows non-deterministic algorithms.



♳ Review: Kinds of Quantum Hardware


In theory, algorithms for these hardware types can use non-deterministic parallelism to evade classical performance limits, and in particular, could allow factoring fast enough to be dangerous, provided big enough quantum circuits can be made to work.



♳ Review: We’re discussing PQC before QC?

Yes !


Review: What’s the problem?


NOTES

Every unbreakable cipher has been broken eventually (at least partially5).

20thC RSA and other PKI not guaranteed proof against either of:

Schor’s Algorithm in theory would factor fast on enough quantum circuits but 21 is not a large number yet. (see also Wikipedia. Some say 433 bits on IBM Osprey QC is enough for RSA2048 with Schor’s algo needing 372 Qubits (with pre-processing and post-processing), but will it work? Schneier and Schor doubt it. Shouldn’t someone try it?)

Other probabilistic quantum algorithms (Grover, GEECM, Variational Quantum Factoring (VQF)) can do some much bigger numbers (which may just define new class of unsafe primes??), and with classical pre-processing, can use a much smaller number of qubits than the ^obvious^ log2N.

not clear this will ever be able to generally break RSA4096, but it’s not impossible, so prudent to plan for that day.


2025 GOOGLE WILLOW QC

(Hype, not yet dangerous)

BBC: Google unveils ‘mind-boggling’ quantum computing chip

MSN: Google’s Willow quantum chip breakthrough is hidden behind a questionable benchmark

See caveats on Wikipedia 6:

Per Google company’s claim, Willow is the first chip to achieve below threshold quantum error correction.[1][2] However, a number of critics have pointed out several limitations:

(quoted at length in notes)


NOTES on Willow

Wikipedia Willow_processor, #Criticism, 2025-08-08 continuing:

The logical error rates reported (around 0.14% per cycle) remain orders of magnitude above the 10^6 levels believed necessary for running meaningful, large-scale quantum algorithms.[9] To date, demonstrations have been limited to quantum memory and the preservation of logical qubits’without yet showing below’threshold performance of logical gate operations required for universal fault’tolerant computation.[10] Media coverage has been accused of overstating Willow’s practical significance; although error suppression scales exponentially with qubit count, no large’scale quantum algorithms or commercial applications have yet been demonstrated on Willow.[11] Observers caution that achieving below’threshold error correction is only one milestone on the path to practical quantum computing’further hardware improvements (lower physical error rates) and vastly larger qubit arrays will be required before industrially relevant problem’solving is possible.[12] Some experts note that Willow remains a research prototype within the Noisy intermediate-scale quantum era, still far from delivering the practical, fault’tolerant performance required for real’world applications.[13]



Review: Generalization of Forward Secrecy

♳ * Classical “Forward Secrecy” property requires tha old messages not broken by later loss/compromise of host key


NOTES

* VENONA: It worked Once! ^[see BLU Sept 2018 footnote above]
* We now have a Vacuum Cleaner of Holding (_Greenpeace photo c/o Wikimedia_)

So yes, it can happen again.

Normal Forward Secrecy requires that if e.g. the Host Key is compromised later, any retained cryptograms sent with nonce keys negotiated with the compromised Host Key aren’t also compromised.

This is nice, but we’d also like to protect against advances of technology, e.g. fast factoring or solutions of discrete logs or even massively parallel brute-force key-search on Top500 scale GPU clusters8.

This may not be within your threat model, yet, but in dystopian plausible futures, things you’ve already discussed/downloaded might be retroactively illegal/disloyal and oops.


Review: NIST Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards

The goal of post-quantum cryptography (also called quantum-resistant cryptography) is to develop cryptographic systems that are secure against both quantum and classical computers, and can interoperate with existing communications protocols and networks. – NIST

Review: NIST PQC Competition

National Institute of Standards & Technology started a multi-round competition, similar to with AES and SHA3 competitions


NOTES

NIST, the Bureaucracy formerly known as NBS.

Goal is to have PQC ready for use not only before quantum breakthrough but early enough (roughly now) that anyone who wishes to avoid save-intercepts-now-to-break later can switch quickly; although it may already be too late WRTO NSA archive?

This competition was “more brutal” than prior; of 69 candidates, peer cryptanalysis has broken 62. So far.



Review: Quantum Cracking 2023

[2023.02.28] CRYSTALS-Kyber is one of the public-key algorithms currently recommended by NIST as part of its post-quantum cryptography standardization process. Researchers have just published a side-channel attack’using power consumption’against an implementation of the algorithm that was supposed to be resistant against that sort of attack. The algorithm is not ‘broken’ or ‘cracked’’despite headlines to the contrary’this is just a side-channel attack. What makes this work really interesting is that the researchers used a machine-learning model to train the system to exploit the side channel.

OTOH as seen in TETRA:BURST, a side-channel attack can be used to extract key or algorithm from a piece of equipment that falls into opponent lab.


Review: Known weaknesses

Isn’t non-random or uniformly-blank Salt an unlikely failure?

TL;DR No. It’s happened. (see in notes)


NOTES

Lack of randomness failure isn’t just hypothetical, lots of SSH keys got invalidated in 2008 because they were well-known-primes.

(WTAF? Yep. Debian packagers applying normal best practices where they shouldn’t even touch (Normal doesn’t apply!) had removed the entropy-harvesting because Valgrind and Purify gave accessing uninitialized memory warnings. Well yeah, that’s how we harvest entropy! Another problem (mostly solved?) is host key generation at VM start - the VM’s entropy is rather deterministic (biased) at that point. Similarly, optimizing compilers removing zeroing memory prior to releasing it can allow keys to leak into the memory pool. Cryptographic software is an ongoing a battle against computer ^science^ that ^knows better^.)

And failure to salt wouldn’t surprise me when non-specialists (applications developers, database programmers, protocol developers) who should stick to packaged PKI use-case libraries (e.g. NaCl) try to use cryptographic primitive routines directly to avoid dependencies.)

2023 added few more low-entropy initialization examples added to the list.

And 2024’s PuTTY key disclosure was due to implementing low-entropy nonces badly for use in VMs and everywhere else.

Won’t someone think of the random numbers?


NIST PQC Timeline (updated)

NIST PQC

2025 NIST PQC FIPS 206 FN-DSA draft

A year ago, NIST finalized 3 FIPS PQC standards and selection of several PQC algorithms (1 KEM, 2 DSA). Since then, a few more have progressed through the process.

“Securely” presumably is regarding timing.

Cryptographic math wants to be not only one-way functions but (in a world where encryption is often on a shared CPU) not only fixed time but also fixed tempo, to avoid side-channel (power, CPU%, memory access pattern, …) disclosure of key bits or key correlatives.

2024-OCT NIST PQC DSA Round 2

2025 future FIPS-207 selected Hamming Quasi-Cyclic (HQC, KEM)

Random Bits

NIST SP 800-90A PRE-DRAFT Call for Comments: Recommendation for Random Number Generation Using Deterministic Random Bit Generators

AES 256 (2025)

c/o 🐘

Dec. 2024: NIST proposed a 256-bit block variant of AES with a static 256-bit key size.

Public comments were open until January 25, 2025.

NIST PR



Notes - Post-Quantum Cryptography citations

Schneier; Fed.Reg. ; NIST PR el Reg; CloudFlare NIST March IR Digicert re FN-DSA status; NIST HQC


3 History Vignette - Midway is low on water

The Battle of Midway was won miles away, weeks before, in a bunker in Hawaii. ⎄

Historic Context

Battle of Midway wasn’t a surprise landing after-all.


Notes for Historic Context

In the spring of 1942, Japanese intercepts began to make referencesto a pending operation in which the objective was designated as “AF.” Rochefort and Captain Edwin Layton, Nimitz’s Fleet Intelligence Officer, believed “AF” might be Midway since they had seen “A” designators assigned to locations in the Hawaiian Islands. Based on the informationavailable, logic dictated that Midway would be the most probable place for the Japanese Navy to make its next move. Nimitz however, could not rely on educated guesses. In an effort to alleviate any doubt, in mid-May the commandingofficer of the Midway installation was instructed to send a messagein the clear indicating that the installation’s water distillationplant had suffered serious damage and that fresh water was neededimmediately. Shortly after the transmission, an intercepted Japaneseintelligence report indicated that “AF is short of water.” Armed with this information, Nimitz began to draw up plans to move his carriers …

Even before the Coral Sea engagement, based on what he was decoding, Rochefort predicted a major Japanese attack in the Central Pacific. On May 12, the American decoders discovered that the letters ‘AF’ symbolized the Japanese code name for their target. By May 25th, Rochefort and Captain Edwin Layton, Admiral Chester Nimitz’s Fleet Intelligence Officer, were convinced that ‘AF’ stood for Midway Island. Rochefort had even pinpointed the date of the Japanese attack–June 4, 1942 and that a diversionary attack would take place somewhere in or around Alaska around June 3. There was just one problem: Rochefort had to convince the Washington ‘planners’ who would not believe that Midway could possibly be the target that they were wrong. Commander Jasper Holmes, Rochefort’s assistant, devised a plan to prove that ‘AF’ was indeed Midway, a plan to which Admiral Chester Nimitz agreed. Nimitz instructed Midway to send a clear text message that falsely reported the island was low on fresh water. The Japanese obligingly intercepted the message and promptly and dutifully reported that ‘AF’ was low on fresh water. That was the proof Nimitz needed; he could take action.

(It was the Flag-officer variant that Rochefort’s Station HYPO had been dedicated to prior to Dec 7, 1941. They joined the other stations working on general fleet JN-25b by Dec 25th.)



Revenge of Pearl Harbor Navy

Only after Pearl Harbor attack was Station HYPO, Navy Cryptological unit there, assigned to the suddenly higher priority “JN-25b” IJN operational code.


NOTES FOR Revenge …



Processing Encicode to find, strip Additive key


NOTES FOR Processing Encicode

the codegroup and its meaning were punched on an I.B.M. card and stored in the machine. When an intercept came in, a clerk would punch its codegroups on I.B.M. cards and feed them in. The machine automatically made the run of repeated subtractions and the check of its mechanized difference ‘books’’ necessary to find the identical remainders, and then, with human guidance, the runs to reconstruct the relative additive sequence, correct it to the absolute sequence, and strip it from the encicode message. The machine would then compare the placode groups with the decode cards in its storage and print out the plaintext for whatever decode cards it had. Presumably it would also print out the various possibilities in the case of garbled or partial codegroups. It could also make frequency counts and contact counts and on command could disgorge a desired set of statistics’all codegroups preceding and following a given codegroup, for example.



Method of Differences

Kahn-441-depth 5 messages in depth


Kahn-442-differences Difference runs on columns A and E.



NOTES FOR Method of Differences

It is generally called the ‘difference method.’ The cryptanalyst first identifies, by indicators or traffic analyses or other information, a group of encicode messages that he believes used the same basic code and portions, at least, of the same long additive key. Using repetitions or clues from indicators as anchor points, he places the messages one under another so that the identical portions of the additive key will stand in vertical alignment. ’

He subtracts every encicode group in a column from every other. He subtracts the first group from itself, from the second, third, fourth, and so on, encicode groups, the second group from itself, from the third, fourth, and so on. The differences resulting from these ‘runs’ are listed in a difference book, which also gives the location of the two encicode groups that produced each difference. The cryptanalyst repeats the subtractions for every column and indexes all differences in the difference book. He then examines this book for two columns that have a difference in common. This common difference indicates that the two columns include the same placode group, which each column has enciphered with its own additive.



Book-Breaking


NOTES FOR Book-Breaking



Using a Depth

Example from Hinsley & Stripp:

Stripp-298-depth

Works like an N-dimensional Cross-word puzzle … but with cells being codewords representing words or phrases, and connections being same-offsets in codeword sequence.


NOTES FOR Using a Depth



4 Bibliography & Footnotes

My talks

The YouTube of this presentation will be linked on BLU.org along with these slides and extended notes etc as 2025-sep as per usual.

Prior talks in this series - most talks have slides &/or YouTube attached, sometimes extras.
Alas the YouTube audio pre-pandemic wasn’t great, BLU will need a donation of a wireless clip-on mike if we ever return to Hybrid/In-Person meetings. Or we all need to wear a wired or BT headset while presenting in person?

News + Focus

News and Focus sections have embedded links.

Good security news streams to either research history or to follow year round are Scneier Crypto-gram and SANS ISC, the latter being less cryptologic and more operational in focus – but both cover the wide span of vulnerabilities, tools, remediations, etc, not just the cryptologic that I’m cherry-picking here.
Highly recommended.
Start your day with the 5 minute SANS Internet Storm Center StormCast pod-cast; the Red Team is, so, so should you.

Cryptologic History – general references

Cryptologic History – 2025 – Glossary

references: Kahn and others in bibliography.

Cryptologic History – 2025 – topic-specific

My 2018 vignette on VENONA OTP touched on book-breaking as well.

🕮 books & 📑 whitepapers

‘IA’ indicates available at Internet Archive.

Web pages


Title {Item Template}

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NOTES FOR {item}




  1. see the ♳ Review: Forward Secrecy slide in 2, and BLU 2018 footnotes below↩︎

  2. 2019 what to use, initial suggestions by use-case;↩︎

  3. 2021 what to use, 2019♳ with added caveat Keybase sold to Zoom;↩︎

  4. 2022 what to use, 2019♳ with a governmental PGP use failure;↩︎

  5. See our prior discussions of GEE, VENONA for breaks of One Time Pad, e.g. 20182↩︎

  6. Wikipedia 2025-08-08↩︎

  7. see BLU Sept 2018 Venona footnote above↩︎

  8. 2025 1 Attacks only get better above↩︎