[Discuss] Google's Nexus 7

[bogstad at pobox.com (Bill Bogstad)]

On Tue, Jul 10, 2012 at 11:17 PM, Richard Pieri <richard.pieri at gmail.com> wrote:
> On 7/10/2012 9:19 PM, Bill Bogstad wrote:
>>
> It's not just design.  It's understanding the fickle nature of the consumer
> marketplace.  Neither Google nor Motorola Mobility grok that the way Apple
> does, and putting the two companies together won't magically give them that
> understanding.

No it won't.   OTOH, Microsoft beat Apple for decades for marketshare
even after the consumer marketplace became the dominant force for
desktop computing.  In fact, they still do even now.

>> In addition, everybody talks about how well Apple is doing in
>> smartphones (and they are certainly the largest manufacturer), but on
>> the OS level Android is double iOS. (I've seen 50% vs. 25% numbers).
>
> I'm not sure that the numbers are accurate but the gist of it is.  The Steve
> was livid that Android ripped off iPhone (his statement) and was doing
> better than his own toy.  That was a couple of years ago.  When you factor
> iPad into it then iOS dominates the mobile space.

You are just plan wrong.   Google has been saying for a while now that
they are activating over 1 million new Android devices a day.   Those
are almost all mobile devices.   Apple's shipping numbers for 1Q2012
(from an AP article on the Washington Post website) were 35.1 million
iPhones and 11.8 million iPads.   That's about 500,000 a day.
Completely consistent with my 2 to 1 Android to iOS advantage.

> Don't get me wrong.  I don't think that Nexus 7 is a mistake per se.  At
> least I don't think that the idea is a mistake.  The mistake is trying to
> compete with iPad head-on.  Xoom failed.  Tab 10 failed.  Transformer is
> getting by.  Nobody is going to beat iPad at its own game any time soon.
>
> So don't try.  Google needs to Think Different.  Take what they have, what
> they know.  Turn it on its ear, inside out, upside down.  Make something so
> insanely cool that everyone will want to have one, and everyone else will
> try to copy it.  Easier said than done.

Everyone already does have one (an Android device that is).  It's just
like with PCs.   It's not how many mobile devices a particular vendor
(whether Samsung, LG, Motorola, etc.) sells.  It is the aggregate
numbers that I think matters.   I think iOS is dominating the tablet
market (the best numbers I can find  are at more then a 2 to 1 ratio
vs.  Android).   However, Android still beats iOS 2 to 1 because iOS
is being crushed in the (larger) smartphone market.  As long as
smartphones are subsidized in many markets, I expect that to remain
the case.   This gives Google a large base of customers, developers,
etc. to use as leverage in their efforts to expand their tablet
marketshare.

I'm not saying that Android will automatically win.  I'm just saying
that Google has advantages similar to the ones that Microsoft had in
their efforts to get into the video console market.   Like Microsoft
and the Xbox, Google doesn't have to make money on Android; nor do
they have to get it right the first, second, or even third time.
They can afford to stay in the mobile device market for a long time
without making any money.
For Apple, OTOH, iOS and related services are their cash cow.   I
don't think Apple will end up like RIM, but they could end up back the
way they were some years back.   A respected tech company which sold
to niche customers.

Bill Bogstad