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Jerry Feldman wrote:
> Since HD will be mandated in 2009, that alone
> will cause demand in 2009 to go up...
I think you're all overestimating the significance of this, given that
all TVs attached to cable and satellite will be unaffected.
A quick google ("cable tv penetration") turns up:
http://www.onetvworld.org/?module=displaystory&story_id=784&format=html
Cable Programming Penetration Nears 84% Of All Television Homes
(That was for 2003. Anyone have newer/different stats?)
And:
http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news04/2005/jdpower_satellite.html
August 18, 2005 ... Currently, 27 percent of U.S. households subscribe
only to satellite service -- up from 19 percent in 2004 and 12 percent
in 2000.1 Sixty percent of households subscribe only to cable service
-- down from 62 percent in 2004 and 66 percent in 2000.
Neither of these sources explicitly say what percentage of households
have neither cable or satellite, but 10 to 15% is probably a reasonable
estimate. From that number take way those who have replaced their TV in
the last few years, and add those who have an NTSC set receiving
over-the-air broadcasts as a secondary TV. These two might cancel each
other out.
For those who have cable or satellite, but use OTA for a secondary set,
2009 may prompt them to pay the cable provider $40 for a secondary
hookup, rather than shell out more money for a new TV or a converter.
In any case, the switchover in 2009 is probably going to affect 10% or
fewer of US households. Not entirely insignificant, but not such a huge
event, either.
-Tom
--
Tom Metro
Venture Logic, Newton, MA, USA
"Enterprise solutions through open source."
Professional Profile: http://tmetro.venturelogic.com/
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