Re: hdtv purchase now or later?

["Tom Metro-12" <user=71@nabble.blu.org>]

 Jerry Feldman wrote: 
> Since HD will be mandated in 2009, that alone 
> will cause demand in 2009 to go up... 

I think you're all overestimating the significance of this, given that 
all TVs attached to cable and satellite will be unaffected. 

A quick google ("cable tv penetration") turns up: 

http://www.onetvworld.org/?module=displaystory&story_id=784&format=html
   Cable Programming Penetration Nears 84% Of All Television Homes 

(That was for 2003. Anyone have newer/different stats?) 

And: 
http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news04/2005/jdpower_satellite.html
   August 18, 2005 ... Currently, 27 percent of U.S. households subscribe 
   only to satellite service -- up from 19 percent in 2004 and 12 percent 
   in 2000.1 Sixty percent of households subscribe only to cable service 
   -- down from 62 percent in 2004 and 66 percent in 2000. 

Neither of these sources explicitly say what percentage of households 
have neither cable or satellite, but 10 to 15% is probably a reasonable 
estimate. From that number take way those who have replaced their TV in 
the last few years, and add those who have an NTSC set receiving 
over-the-air broadcasts as a secondary TV. These two might cancel each 
other out. 

For those who have cable or satellite, but use OTA for a secondary set, 
2009 may prompt them to pay the cable provider $40 for a secondary 
hookup, rather than shell out more money for a new TV or a converter. 

In any case, the switchover in 2009 is probably going to affect 10% or 
fewer of US households. Not entirely insignificant, but not such a huge 
event, either. 

  -Tom 

-- 
Tom Metro 
Venture Logic, Newton, MA, USA 
"Enterprise solutions through open source." 
Professional Profile: http://tmetro.venturelogic.com/

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