Re: hdtv purchase now or later?

["Jerry Feldman-2" <user=4@nabble.blu.org>]

 On Thu, 27 Sep 2007 12:22:28 -0700 
"Kristian Erik Hermansen" <[hidden email]> wrote: 

> Assume that demand remains constant and supply increases.  By your own 
> statement, prices come down.  In such a scenario, again by your own 
> statement, this will increase demand, due to lower prices.  This 
> contradicts your original statement that supply does not affect 
> demand, since we began with the assumption that supply increases. 
> Thus, there must be some correlation between supply affecting demand! 

I think you misunderstand demand. In a pure market there is a supply 
curve and a demand curve. If supply goes up, prices will come down and 
more product will be sold, but that does not affect the demand curve. 
In general, you lower prices, you will sell more product, but your 
incentive to sell that product will be reduced because your profit 
margin is lower. Every economic book talks about an anomaly that 
occurred in England a few hundred years ago when the price of wheat 
went up, and at the same time so did sales of wheat. This contradicted 
the supply-demand curve. But, what really happened was that wheat was a 
necessity. When the prices went up, people could not afford beef or 
pork, so the sales of beef and pork went down and wheat went up. The 
scenario I see for 2009 is that the suppliers will try to affect demand 
by doomsday advertising. You need a new TV because your old analog TV 
won't work any longer. That advertising caused perception affects 
demand, so demand goes up in Nov. 2008. Prices will remain relatively 
constant, possibly sneak up a bit. After the Christmas season, the 
suckers are pretty much out of the market, and the traditional post 
holiday sales will begin. Prices will start to come down, as they 
always do at this time of the year, but analog TVs will continue to 
work until mid-Feb. There will be some initial rush in Feb. and March 
as people's TVs no longer work. Some will get set top boxes. By the end 
of March, this demand should then subside causing a bit of oversupply. 
At this point, prices will come down. 

So, I suspect that the worst time to buy is between Nov. 2008 and March 
2009. After that the normal seasonal influences will be at work, and 
prices will fall and new models with features that only MIT PHDs can 
utilize will come out. 

-- 
Jerry Feldman <[hidden email]> 
Boston Linux and Unix user group 
http://www.blu.org PGP key id:C5061EA9 
PGP Key fingerprint:053C 73EC 3AC1 5C44 3E14 9245 FB00 3ED5 C506 1EA9 
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