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More on Comcast

An ignoramus at Comcast spoketh:
> Greg Butz, senior vice president of marketing and business development for
> Comcast Online, said the company currently sees no value in going to slower,
> cheaper tiers.

A writer at Boardwatch Magazine predicted about 8 years ago that the future of
online access is the $30/month T-1.  That was back when a standard BBN or
UUNET T-1 cost about $2200/month.

I agreed with him then, and I agree with him now.  Barring a severe bout of
inflation that among other things drives people's average salaries up
two-fold, the $50/month consumer broadband service has reached saturation.

About 70% of people just aren't willing to pay $600 each and every year for
something that is considered by virtually all uf us (me included) a luxury
that can be lived without.  The crossover point is about $25 to $30 a month: 
more than that, and it's considered expensive.  Less than that, and it's
considered cheap.

Broadband will reach 30% of homes at the current $50 price.  But no amount of
sales effort will convince more than that number to sign up until the price is
dropped (permanently, not just for a 3 or 6 month introductory period).

Broadband purveyors should tread carefully in this wireless era.  If they
don't offer a cheap tier of service for the masses, wi-fi piracy will
skyrocket and cut into their core revenues.


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