dropping cable

[bogstad-e+AXbWqSrlAAvxtiuMwx3w at public.gmane.org (Bill Bogstad)]

On Fri, May 14, 2010 at 2:40 PM, Tom Metro <tmetro-blu-5a1Jt6qxUNc at public.gmane.org> wrote:
> Greg Rundlett (freephile) wrote:
>> I simply cancelled tv.
>
> Sure, that's an option.
>
> I can say Comcast is doing a good job of getting me used to living
> without their services. The more this happens, the better the chances
> are that I and others will find alternatives and cancel their service.
> (About a year ago I signed up to a 2-year contract, so I'd need to
> figure out where the break-even point is on the early termination fee.)

You might consider pointing out that they have drastically changed
your service in that time period.
Maybe threaten them with small claims court???

> What I'm curious to see is what will happen as the web transitions to
> HTML5, and standards-based video. Take for example a channel like Comedy
> Central, who not long ago pulled their content from Hulu, and now
> provides full episodes on their site for many of their shows.
>
> What's to say a future MythTV version couldn't subscribe to and download
> these episodes directly from the content provider and dispense with the
> cable company? (I wouldn't even mind the inclusion of commercials. This
> direct model apparently makes it profitable to have just one or two
> commercials per 22 minutes, instead of dozens.)

I'm not sure of that.   They may think of it as and advertising/loss
leader while they make their real money on Cable fees.
If the content is already sitting around (sunk cost), why not try to
make a little more through a different distribution channel.
It may also be a defensive move to avoid other content producers
getting a start.   Until I see similar quality content available on
the web which wasn't originally produced for OTA or Cable
distribution, I'm not sure of the viability of Internet only
distribution for the content that I currently can get from OTA/Cable.

You touch on this in the rest of your note, but if you look at what
has happened with music, movies, books; I see no reason
to believe that the current players are going to let this happen if
they can possibly stop it.  With music, the CD was unprotected so in
the end there wasn't much that the current players could do to stop it
since they never had a chance to push a new physical format to provide
new functionality (quadraphonic recordings never took off).   Since
they can't make the physical format obsolete, the music industry has
taken to suing people to try to cut down on wholesale copyright
violation.   The result is that I can listen to music that I have
purchased anywhere/way I want.

With movies, DVDs were cracked; but fortunately (for them) people
actually do see some value in better then DVD quality video so we now
have Blu-Ray which I believe has key revocation functionality built
in.   That appears to be failing as well.   The providers probably
have one more chance to stop defacto open access to their content when
they figure out how they are going to distribute 3D content.  As for
books, the lockdown is via single-function display devices or DRMed
Windows only software-viewers.   I'm not sure how that is going to
turn out.

Now, imagine a world where your choices are either DTAs (for the the
luddites) or HDMI/HDCP only (no analog) set-top boxes for Cable
access.   The current players will provide just enough 'free' content
on the web to hope to try to kill off startups.  I don't know if that
will work, but I think they will stick with it as long as they can.
Another option is to go to single-use devices like the Netflix driven
ROKU player.  If you want HD or 3D content, you have to use a DRM
supporting device.   They will make some of their content available on
the net in open formats in sub-SD quality for use on handheld or
non-DRM supporting devices.   Neither of these options seem MythTV
friendly.

Bill Bogstad