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On 03/13/2012 12:13 AM, Shirley M?rquez D?lcey wrote: > On 3/12/2012 10:07 PM, markw at mohawksoft.com wrote: >> My friends and I were arguing about what the future holds for >> computers. I >> think we all agree that the desktop is dead, but there is some >> disagreement as to the fate of the laptop. Does anyone think that >> this is >> an interesting discussion? >> >> Here are my assertions: >> >> The desktop if largely dead like cobol. It will linger, but never >> return. > > I don't think the desktop is dead. It will remain as a choice for > high-end users like professional developers, graphic artists, and > serious gamers - people who need the maximum amount of processing and > graphics power and/or lots of screen real estate. Hooking up two or > three 20" or larger displays is never going to be be a convenient > thing to do with a laptop, and if your computer use includes > non-portable input devices like scanners the advantage of laptops goes > away. It is likely to fade away (though not die) as a mainstream > device. I suppose it might get largely replaced by desktop-replacement > laptops, but I don't think of any system weighing over 7 pounds as a > true laptop anyway. > > The laptop certainly won't die for a while, if ever. Many tasks work > so much better with real keyboards; for example, I can't see > professional writers ever adopting tablets as their primary writing > device. We might see hybrid devices like the EeePad Transformer make > some inroads, we might see tablet-like OSes like Windows 8 or > Ubuntu/Unity or actual tablet OSes like iOS find their way onto them, > but the basic laptop form factor will endure and gradually become > mostly smaller/lighter systems like the MacBook Air and ultrabooks. I was on my way out at my last post. First, I don't think that laptops and desktops will be going away anytime soon. But what I am seeing is the desktop disappearing from businesses in favor of the laptop. But, the desktop does have some advantages such as can support more storage and can be used as a local server. And, for high end users, they can be much faster. So, I certainly agree with Shirley's first paragraph. I think the first casualty of the tablet market is the netbooks. The higher end tablets like the iPad can certainly fill in the netbook niche. The tablets will most likely cut into the laptop market. But, Laptops have more connectivity such as USB, network, VGA (although VGA will probably be replaced by HDMI eventually). I do think that the higher end tablets will eventually have these features. Over time, I think that the tablet will replace the traditional laptop as SSD drives become cheaper and have a higher density. But, I don't see this happening any time soon. essentially some laptops will have touch screens with operating systems that behave like Android and iPad. The traditional keyboard oriented display will have to change. But, there is a generational issue. Older people will not want the newer technology. So there is more of an evolutionary shift. traditional desktop and laptop systems will remain for years, but the tablet market will increase -- Jerry Feldman <gaf at blu.org> Boston Linux and Unix PGP key id:3BC1EB90 PGP Key fingerprint: 49E2 C52A FC5A A31F 8D66 C0AF 7CEA 30FC 3BC1 EB90
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